Too Convenient Measles Outbreak?
Managing public outrage may manufacture vaccine demand
Measles is back in the news with an outbreak in Texas, suspiciously just as RFK Jr gets confirmed as HHS secretary and vows to look deeply into the true safety and efficacy of vaccines like MMR, famous for stoking controversy around its suspected contribution to autism and other chronic disease epidemics.
But it’s important to note that this supposed outbreak follows closely on the heels (about10 days earlier) of a local measles vaccination drive.
Why is that important context?
Well, a false outbreak of measles could potentially occur right after an MMR vaccination drive due to testing limitations and misinterpretation of symptoms.
And before you object that it’s inherently unlikely, it’s actually happened before.
To understand how it’s possible, let's look at several mechanisms that could contribute to a false outbreak:
1/3 Shedding of the Vaccine Strain
The MMR vaccine contains live, attenuated (weakened) viruses, and in some cases, individuals briefly shed the vaccine-strain measles virus (typically in saliva or respiratory secretions).
Standard PCR tests detect measles RNA (the genetic code of the virus) but do not always differentiate between wild-type, infectious strain of measles (a real outbreak) and vaccine-strain measles (false outbreak triggered by vaccine drive).
If a recently vaccinated person tests positive, it could be due to residual vaccine virus, not a real infection.
Genotyping is required to distinguish between vaccine-strain and wild-type measles, but this is not always done immediately.
Key points:
Vaccine-strain measles virus has been detected in throat swabs and urine post-vaccination.
This does not cause transmission of disease in healthy individuals, but in some cases, it has been mistaken for a real measles outbreak.
2/3 Increased Surveillance & False Positives
After a vaccine drive, health authorities may monitor for measles cases more closely using serological tests, which are different than diagnostic PCR tests. Serology tests the immune system response to viruses or vaccines.
This can lead to:
False positive serology tests: Recently vaccinated individuals develop IgM antibodies, which can be mistaken for response to a wild-type measles infection since the serological tests aren’t specific enough to tell the difference between immune response to the vaccine or the wild-type virus.
3/3 Overreporting
Overreporting of measles-like symptoms that are actually vaccine reactions or unrelated viral illnesses:
Some people (especially children) develop mild measles-like symptoms after vaccination (after all the vaccine has a weakened version of Measles, so it can have weakened effects in healthy individuals or even full blown effects in weakened individuals. Common effects seen in healthy vaccinated people include::
•Low-grade fever
•Mild rash (5–12 days post-vaccination)
•General malaise
These vaccine reactions are not contagious, but if misreported or misdiagnosed, they could be mistaken for an outbreak, especially when combined with shedding of the attenuated virus from the shots.
Historical Precedents
Cases of false measles outbreaks due to MMR vaccine shedding have been reported in the past, including instances where PCR tests detected the vaccine strain and were initially misinterpreted as an outbreak.
Genotyping eventually confirmed that these were not wild-type measles cases.
However, we all know that the followup reporting is ignored by the media and all anyone in the public remembers is the initial hyped-up measles media scare cycle.
To summarize:
A measles vaccination drive can create the illusion of an outbreak if:
Recently vaccinated individuals shed the vaccine-strain virus, triggering PCR positives.
Serological tests show false positives due to recent vaccination.
Neither PCR nor serological testing usually differentiates vaccine-strain from wild-type virus.
Mild vaccine reactions (rash, fever) are mistaken for wild-type measles cases.
To avoid confusion, genotyping of PCR-positive cases and careful clinical assessment are needed to distinguish between vaccine-related findings and a real outbreak, but what if the point is not to find the truth, but to create panic and foment a backlash to RFKs appointment as HHS secretary?
To begin to answer that maybe you need to start by asking yourself another question: do you believe in convenient coincidences?
I had measles as a child. A fever and a few days off of school (woo hoo). Rarely fatal. Just let nature take its course. Instead we inject foreign proteins and metals when we vaccinate people. Neither of these belong in humans.
Between measles and bird flu I’ve had enough.